The Indiana Pacers and GM Larry Bird have way too much experience at this. For the 4th straight season, they find themselves in the NBA Draft Lottery, which will be drawn next week. Bird is on the hook to prove himself yet again, and I'm sure he's as tired of it as fans are. He's had some hits and some misses, and genrally kept the Pacers a well-behaved, mediocre NBA team; unwatchable as they sometimes are. In short, he needs to knock this one out of the park. No more Shawn Williams' or James White's. The losing and apathy have gone on long enough.
Because of a meaningless late-season surge, the Pacers finished with the 10th worst record in the NBA. As recently as mid-March, they had the 4th worst record, which would have increased their chance at the top pick from 1.1% to 10.4%. Not that the Pacers have any reason to remotely hope they'll be that lucky, but I can think of no other team that needs John Wall as badly as the Pacers do. Their 1.1% chance at the top pick is only marginally smaller than their 1.4% chance at #2 (likely Ohio State's Evan Turner) or 1.9% chance at #3 (most experts think Georgia Tech forward Derrick Favors goes here). Barring that luck, they'll draft #10. Is anyone else as underwhelmed as I am with picks 2 and 3? I really like Turner, but he doesn't seem like an NBA star to me, and at #2, I'd think a team needs someone more athletic and a more consistent shooter. Turner was a heck of a college guard and while I see a long career, I also see "6th man." I guess I'd look for more with the 2nd pick; so unless the Pacers get #1, I'm just as happy if they stay at #10.
The Pacers need a post scorer and a point guard, and as most NBA fans know, point guards are the most valuable entities in the league because it all starts with them. Look at what Steve Nash and Rajon Rondo have done for their respective teams thus far, and imagine a healthy Pacers' team with a quality point. TJ Ford has never fit into Jum O'Brien's system, and though I don't care for O'Brien, he's our man for now. AJ Price has proven a decent and reliable back up, but that's about all; and last season's surprise Earl Watson will likely end up playing elsewhere next season, which esentially leaves the Pacers without a floor general. And that spells trouble.
Tyler Hansbrough will return next season, and he's really a bonus this year because he'll be like another rookie. Mike Dunleavey should be well on the road back from multiple knee injuries which have limited him for the past 2 seasons; and Jeff Foster's a "maybe." All of that means Danny Granger, Brandon Rush, Roy Hibbert, and Troy Murphy get some reliable depth, scoring, and energy back, even before rookies are part of the equation.
NBADraft.net currently says the Pacers will select 10th and choose North Carolina forward Ed Davis. Pardon me while I yawn, but nothing about two straight 6'9" power forwards from North Carolina excites me or makes me want to buy tickets. The Pacers need a playmaker; not more of what they already have. Davis will likely be no better at producing numbers than a healthy Hansbrough, and while it's true you can never have enough good post players, the bigger need is elsewhere.
The guy I think makes the most sense for Indiana is Armon Johnson from Nevada. He's 6'3", left handed, extremely athletic, strong, and he can create. He has nice court vision, but is still developing point guard skills. And the best part? He's proficient at keeping his man in front of him on the defensive end. The Pacers aren't likely to win next season anyway, so why not give the kid a year to play with a few good shooters and then use the expiring contracts of Murphy, Dunleavey, and Foster as leverage in trades, or let them expire and walk into 2011 with huge amounts of cash under the NBA salary cap?
Johnson is projected anywhere between 19-23 in the first round, and there are a few teams with multiple first round choices. Oklahoma City, Memphis, and Washington in particular. Oklahoma City is young and very talented; maybe in need of a veteran guy who can play the 4 or 5 and shoot from the outside? How about Troy Murphy and our #10 for their #21, #26, and Nick Collison or Nenad Kristic? Probably can't get you Gordon Hayward too; but it'll get you Johnson and another solid rookie, along with a good post player or two. Bird really should call me.
No comments:
Post a Comment