Thursday, June 24, 2010

Potential, Upside, and the 2010 NBA Draft




I'm no Scoop Jackson, and I'm certainly no Steven A. Smith (though if that guy can have a radio talk show, why can't I?); but this draft seemed loaded with "maybe" to me. There was one sure-fire, can't miss player in John Wall and then, there was everybody else.

The Indiana Pacers have had to say the very least, a forgettable draft decade. Here are the first round selections for the Pacers since 2000; other than Danny Granger, stop me when you double take. Primoz Brezec, Fred Jones, David Harrison, Granger, Shawne Williams, Jarryd Bayless (who the Pacers traded for Ike Diogu - the worst possible fit for Jim O'Brien's offense, Jarrett Jack, and Josh McRoberts), and Tyler Hansbrough who rates an obvious "incomplete" so far. That, my friends is ugly. That is how you go from being a championship contender to an also ran at the back end of the lottery every season. Well, that, a brawl and some key injuries. Larry Bird's done a nice job making a couple of draft night deals, bringing Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert to Indianapolis, but in 2008 he also gave a 2-year guaranteed contract to 2nd round pick James White, only to cut him a few months later. Bird needs to show his mettle and pull the Pacers out from under this pattern of mediocrity and "also ran." The last 4 seasons have been nothing short of pathetic, and as Bird said this week "it's time to win." Sheer brilliance.

The fact is, the Pacers need a superstar. They need a poster child. They needed to take a swing at a player or two who have the dreaded "upside," just because one of these days, a player no one's heard of will come out of nowhere and hit it big. Reggie Miller was a thin, wiry player very few people east of Barstow knew much about; especially Pacers fans. All he did was make himself a first-ballot hall of famer and arguably the best clutch shooter in NBA history.

It's all but impossible to get a superstar beyond the first few picks; and that's what's so incredibly frustrating about the Pacers. No one, least of all Bird likes to lose. But in the NBA, you sometimes have to be really bad before you can be good and Bird has not shown a willingness to pack it it late in meaningless seasons; resulting in picks in the 10-13 range. That's where the Shawne Williams' of the world live. This year, another California product was the Pacers' 1st round choice :

Paul George from Fresno State is athletic, long, he can shoot with range, and has a smooth release. George can also penetrate and finish with authority; but hasn't yet shown an ability to do that consistently. He was only 2nd Team all-conference at FSU, but by all accounts is a player who's "still maturing." See : "upside." The Pacers have bigger needs than a wing player, but George has worlds of potential and of the players left when the Pacers made their selection, I think he was a great choice.

In round 2, the Pacers went with Lance Stephenson from the University of Cincinnati - the same school as White. Uh oh. Indiana Hoosiers' fans will remember Stephenson as a highly recruited, 2009 IU target from Lincoln High School in Brooklyn. He was touted as a future NBA superstar, and had scouts drooling with his combination of size, speed, and play-making ability. Then, he went to college (at least I think that's what UC is), gained weight, and his stock dropped. "Upside" again. Stephenson is a 6'5" 225 pound athlete who has quickness and can finish, but he has the same maddening trait Jeremiah Rivers does - he frequently plays like his hair's on fire. He's best off the bounce and needs to have the ball in his hands, but so did Gilbert Arenas, a player with whom Stephenson has been compared. A man can dream.

Here's what concerns me: Jay Bilas, who's actually a talking head I respect, said the same things about both Stephenson and George. He said they "take a lot of difficult shots" and "they tend to turn it over too often." I am again reminded of Jeremiah Rivers. I hope 3 years from now, I'm reminded of Miller and Arenas. A man can dream.

Late edit : Later in round 2, the Pacers made a deal, trading the #57 overall pick and cash considerations to Oklahoma City for their #51 pick....someone named Magnum Rolle. That's a name made for the San Fernando Valley, not an NBA basketball floor.

RT Brightman

No comments: